Bottom Line
A 10.00 RAS freak (4.34/41.5"/133") at 6'3"/204 falls to Round 4 behind elite separator Jordyn Tyson in New Orleans, landing in a target room where every WR1-4 is currently questionable. Buy at late-2nd ADP as a high-variance upside swing — the athletic profile is too rare to ignore at that price.
Team Fit & Opportunity
Saints invested R1 capital in Jordyn Tyson and circled back for Lance at 136, signaling a real developmental plan. With 55 vacated targets and Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, Trey Palmer, and Mason Tipton all listed questionable, the pecking order behind Tyson is genuinely open. Tyler Shough's deep-ball lean fits Lance's vertical X-profile. Realistic Year-1 role: backup boundary receiver with situational deep shots and red-zone packages, with injury upside to a 70-target floor if the room thins.
Talent Profile
The athletic profile is borderline historic — 10.00 RAS, 4.34 forty, 41.5" vert, 133" broad at 6'3"/204 puts him in the rarefied "tall + truly fast + truly explosive" bucket that produces ~3 prospects per class. PFF flagged him as "incredible mid-round value." The catch is FCS production at North Dakota State against weaker corners and a brother-of-Trey storyline that may have inflated some pre-draft buzz. Round 4 capital tells you NFL evaluators saw real route polish gaps despite the testing. He's a traits projection, not a refined product.
Strengths
- Vertical/contested-catch ceiling: 6'3" with a 41.5" vert and 133" broad is a top-1% explosion profile — instant red-zone and 50-50 ball weapon.
- True long speed at size: 4.34 at 204 lbs creates real take-the-top-off threat that NFC South defenses must respect, opening underneath windows.
- Landing-spot leverage: 55 vacated targets plus four questionable WRs ahead of him creates a clearer Year-1 path than most R4 wideouts get.
Concerns
- FCS competition level: NDSU production doesn't translate cleanly; the jump in coverage speed and disguise will expose any route-running shortcuts.
- Round 4 capital: NFL teams had three full days and 135 picks to take him — they didn't. The athletic testing didn't move his board enough, which usually reflects tape concerns.
- QB ecosystem: Tyler Shough is an unproven starter; if he falters and Rattler/Wilson cycle in, target quality craters before Lance can establish.
Historical Comp Read
The 6'3"/4.3s/40"+ vert archetype historically splits hard: the hits (Marquise Goodwin-plus-size types like Mike Wallace, peak Marquez Valdes-Scantling) become real vertical WR3s; the misses (Stephen Hill, Darrius Heyward-Bey at the extreme) wash out when route nuance never develops. The FCS-to-NFL athletic-freak WR comp set is thin and unkind — Trey Lance's brother carrying a similar small-school-traits profile is more cautionary than encouraging.
Outlook
Year 1: 25-40 targets, 350 yards, 3-4 TDs as a vertical/red-zone specialist behind Tyson. Three-year arc bends on whether Klint Kubiak's staff develops the intermediate route tree — if yes, he's a WR3/4 with weekly spike potential by 2028. Catalyst: an Olave injury or trade plus a Shough breakout opening the X-role full-time. Risk: he's a Year-3 athletic-traits cut who never separates against NFL leverage and washes to a special-teams gunner role.