Bottom Line
TE2 in the class by model (85th percentile) lands behind Evan Engram on a 5th-round price tag — the route versatility (94th percentile) is real, but the path to targets isn't. Stash in TE-premium leagues at late 3rd, fade in 1QB.
Team Fit & Opportunity
Denver spent pick 152 on Joly with Engram already locked in as the move TE and Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins, and Lucas Krull rounding out the room. Only 25 vacated targets means year-1 volume is capped — Joly is a developmental pick behind a 31-year-old veteran on a short runway. The Sean Payton offense has historically funneled high-value TE work (Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook lineage), so the long-term fit is genuine even if 2026 is a redshirt.
Talent Profile
The 89th-percentile production score plus 94th-percentile route versatility paints Joly as a legitimate receiving TE rather than an in-line blocker — at 6'4"/241 he's built more like a big slot than a Y. The 87th-percentile YPRR-over-expected says he won separation he wasn't supposed to at NC State, and 87th-percentile explosiveness backs up the after-catch profile. The 73rd-percentile WAA is the soft spot: he produced, but not at a dominant rate relative to teammates. Profile reads modern flex TE, not blocker.
Strengths
- Route tree breadth: 94th-percentile route versatility is a top-tier mark in this class and signals scheme-flexible deployment from slot, in-line, and detached.
- YAC/explosive profile: 87th-percentile explosiveness paired with 87th-percentile YPRR-over-expected suggests he creates after the catch, not just on schemed touches.
- Landing spot ceiling (long-term): Sean Payton has historically funneled 100+ targets to his lead TE; Engram's contract situation makes 2027 the real opportunity window.
Concerns
- Blocked depth chart: Engram is the unambiguous TE1 and Trautman/Adkins eat the rotational snaps — 25 vacated targets is a closed door for 2026.
- 5th-round draft capital: Pick 152 means no organizational commitment; one bad camp and he's TE3 or a practice squad body.
- WAA only 73rd percentile: He didn't dominate his own offense the way the top comps did, which softens the "elite producer" read the headline model number suggests.
Historical Comp Read
Kincaid (88%) and Pitts (86%) are flattering paper comps but both were 1st-round picks with immediate target shares — Joly's 5th-round capital severs that outcome path. Njoku (88%) is the more honest read: a toolsy receiving TE who needed three years before becoming fantasy-relevant, and only after the depth chart cleared. O.J. Howard is the cautionary tail — similar profile, never translated. The traits comp; the opportunity doesn't.
Outlook
Year 1 is a near-zero fantasy projection — TE40+ range, occasional 12-personnel snaps. The three-year arc hinges entirely on Engram: if Denver moves on after 2026 (likely given age and cap), Joly steps into a Payton-system TE1 role with genuine top-12 upside by 2028. If Engram extends or Denver drafts another TE early, Joly is a backup. Catalyst is Engram's exit; risk is Denver treating pick 152 as exactly what it was.