Bottom Line
8th-percentile production model meets a UDFA tag behind Ashton Jeanty — this is a deep-stash third-string profile with passing-down upside as the only real path to fantasy relevance. Avoid in standard rookie drafts; monitor as a waiver flier in deep dynasty leagues only.
Team Fit & Opportunity
Las Vegas has 92 vacated carries and 110 vacated targets, but Jeanty was a top-10 pick and will eat the bell-cow share. Dylan Laube is the entrenched passing-down back, and Hemby projects to compete with Chris Collier for the RB3 spot. As a UDFA, the roster math is unforgiving — he likely needs a Laube injury just to dress on game days. Year-1 role: practice squad with emergency duty.
Talent Profile
At 6'0"/210 with 50th-percentile athleticism, Hemby has functional NFL size without the burst to compensate for marginal efficiency. His career -0.03 RYOE/att and -0.15 BWOE/att signal a back who doesn't create when blocking breaks down — the 0.13 YACoE/att is the only positive ground signal. The actual selling point is the 94th-percentile receiving score, which against a 92nd-percentile strength of schedule earns some weight. RB23 of 25 in this class tells the story: replacement-level rusher, real third-down chops.
Strengths
- Receiving chops: 94th-percentile career receiving score gives him a legitimate role to chase as a third-down back behind Laube.
- Schedule-adjusted production: 92nd-percentile SOS means his middling rushing numbers came against quality fronts in the Big Ten.
- Functional size: 6'0"/210 frame is NFL-ready for pass protection, a prerequisite for any third-down role.
Concerns
- No creation ability: -0.15 BWOE/att and -0.03 RYOE/att across his career — he doesn't make defenders miss or generate yards the blocking didn't already produce.
- Roster math: UDFA behind Jeanty and Laube on a depth chart that already carries Collier; the Raiders have no incentive to feature him.
- Age curve: 23 years old as a rookie with 8th-percentile model output — the development runway is gone.
Historical Comp Read
The top comps are Evan Hull (13% model) and James Williams (5%), both of whom washed out of the league without meaningful touches despite similar receiving-back framing. Eno Benjamin (55%) is the optimistic outlier — he carved out brief committee work but never sustained it. The signal is consistent: pass-catching college backs without creation traits become camp bodies, not fantasy assets. The comp set is bleak and accurate to the profile.
Outlook
Year-1 expectation is practice squad or RB3 inactive on most weeks — zero standalone fantasy value. The three-year arc realistically tops out as a Laube-style change-of-pace backup if he wins the pass-pro reps. Catalyst: a Laube injury opens passing-down work and his receiving grade plays up. Risk: he's cut by final cuts and never sees a 53. By 2028, the realistic outcome is "off NFL rosters." Not a dynasty asset in 12-team formats.